I am an associate professor of economics at the University of Ottawa in Ottawa, Canada. My fields of research are international trade and development economics; I mainly study the international economic relations of developing countries. I am also a co-organizer of the Ottawa Applied Microeconomics Lab. Here is my CV.
Relocation from China (with Chinese Characteristics)
(with Song Yuan)
The share of Chinese goods in US imports has fallen sharply since 2018, as production for the US market has
shifted from China to other countries. Does this trend represent US-China 'decoupling', or are other US trade
partners playing growing roles as intermediaries in ongoing US-China economic relations? Using firm-level
and product-level data, we find that Chinese manufacturing investment and Chinese-produced parts have
increasingly flowed to third-country 'winners' who have simultaneously increased their US market share. We
present evidence that our findings capture expanding indirect relationships linking China and the US rather
than broader economic trends within the 'winners' themselves.
China in Africa: Building Access to Resources?
(with Samuel Marden)
Working paper to be circulated in spring 2024 - current draft available upon request
A popular narrative about China-Africa relations emphasizes access to strategic mineral resources as a key objective
of Chinese involvement in sub-Saharan Africa. Is this characterization consistent with the actual pattern of Chinese
investment and foreign aid? To explore this question, we first investigate the characteristics of African mines
in which China-based firms have ownership stakes. We find that Chinese ownership is much more likely for mines
containing minerals intensively imported by China and mines with 'critical' minerals. We then consider the market
access implications of road, rail and port projects financed with Chinese government funding. Outside South Africa,
China-funded infrastructure improvements tend to reduce the projected cost of shipping to the nearest port by more
for mines with minerals intensively imported by China, mines producing 'critical' minerals and mines with Chinese
ownership. We do not observe the same patterns for infrastructure projects funded by the World Bank.
When are Tariff Cuts Not Enough? Heterogeneous Effects of Trade Preferences for the Least Developed Countries
(with Fabien Forge and Kyae Lim Kwon)
Accepted at Journal of International Economics
Poor countries export a remarkably narrow range of products. To what extent have trade preferences targeted to the least
developed countries (LDCs) changed this situation? We study a large set of recent reforms to the LDC trade preferences
offered by OECD countries. Leveraging trade policy variation by importer, exporter, product and year, we show that tariff
reductions have increased the prevalence of positive trade flows. However, new flows have been far more likely to emerge
in cases with previous 'export experience', i.e. where countries already exported the same product to another OECD
country, or exported a related product to the same importer. So this wave of tariff cuts for LDCs has resulted in
an extension of existing patterns of trade rather than wider export diversification.
The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture
(with Francisco JM Costa,
Fabien Forge and
João Paulo Pessoa)
Environmental and Resource Economics 85 (1), May 2023, pp. 1-27
We investigate the extent to which climate change will result in insurable and uninsurable losses for farmers in India.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may increase the volatility of farmers' yields, leading to rising but
insurable risk. These changes may also reduce the expected yield in an 'average year', causing uninsurable reductions
in the returns to farming. We use a multi-run climate model to predict the future distribution of potential yields
at the district level for sixteen major crops. For the average district, we project a sharp decline in expected agricultural
revenue, but small shifts in volatility. This is because weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural
returns -- what had once been 1-in-100-year events -- are predicted to become the norm by the end of the century.
Our projections therefore imply substantial uninsurable losses from the changing climate for Indian farmers.
On Target? Sanctions and the Economic Interests of Elite Policymakers in Iran
(with Mirko Draca, Leanne Stickland and
Nele Warrinnier)
Economic Journal 133 (649), January 2023, pp. 159-200
Nontechnical discussion:
LSE UK Policy and Politics blog
and
The Conversation
Online appendix
Replication package
How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study
the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with
significant influence over the direction of Iran's nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the
process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress.
The results indicate the 'bluntness' of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating
substantial economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.
The Persistence of Trade Policy in China After WTO Accession
Journal of International Economics 114, September 2018, pp. 130-142
Nontechnical discussion: VoxEU
Online appendix
China export restrictions data
Concordances and replication files
Import tariffs have fallen steeply worldwide over the last several decades, but has trade policy persisted
through a rise in the use of other instruments? I study this question in the context of China's 2001
accession to the World Trade Organization, using panel data on Chinese export policies. I find that
after its entry into WTO, the distribution of China's export restrictions across industries increasingly
resembles the inverse of its pre-WTO import tariff schedule. The evidence suggests that increases in
export restrictions are likely to have partly restored China's pre-WTO trade policy.
Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom
(with Francisco JM Costa and
João Paulo Pessoa)
Journal of International Economics 102, September 2016, pp. 50-69
Nontechnical discussion: VoxEU
(also published by VoxLACEA
and the
Lindau meetings blog)
Online appendix
Concordances and replication files
A recent boom in commodities-for-manufactures trade between China and other developing countries has led to much
concern about the losers from rising import competition in manufacturing, but little attention on the winners from
growing Chinese demand for commodities. Using census data for Brazil, we find that local labour markets more
affected by Chinese import competition experienced slower growth in manufacturing wages between 2000 and 2010.
However, we observe faster wage growth in locations benefiting from rising Chinese commodity demand during the same period.
I teach the following courses:
ECO2151 - Introduction to Econometrics (undergraduate)
ECO4117 - Development Economics (undergraduate)
ECO6170 - Development Economics I (graduate)